Study analysis: predicting prolonged recovery from concussion
- Created on Saturday, 31 December 2011 13:05
- Last Updated on 21.05.2012
- Published Date

by Thomas Trojian M.D.
An interesting article in the Journal of Neurosurgery, lead author Brian Lau, is a first attempt at determining whether any factors will predict prolonged recovery. Researchers tested high school football players with the ImPACT (computerized neurocognitive test that the authors of the study are principal owners.) They excluded 69 of the 177 athletes from the study (reason for the exclusion is not fully explained, lost to follow up.) They reported the results from the 108 remaining athletes.
The data showed a positive predictive value of 40-46%. Positive predictive value is how well a positive result predicts prolonged recovery. Therefore, a positive test correctly predicts prolonged recovery 40-46% of the time.
Another way good way to look at the information is the sensitivity and specificity. The sensitivity is: of those people that have prolonged recovery how many will be identified by a positive test.
By moving the cutoff values the authors can change the sensitivity. A higher sensitivity means you will be able to tell someone they will take a long time to recover and you would not mistakenly say you should recover quickly when they won't. As the sensitivity goes up often the specificity goes down (meaning you will tell athletes that they will take a long time to recover when they will recovery within 2 weeks). 46.3% of the athletes had prolonged recovery, which is useful information.
When the sensitivity was 85% the specificity was an awful 2-10%. In other words, of the 50 athletes with prolonged recovery you would tell 43 that they will have prolonged recovery but of the 58 with short recovery you would tell 53 to 56 of them (depending on the measure used) that they will have prolonged recovery, not very helpful as a sports medicine doctor.
The two areas that showed the most promise were Migraine Symptom Cluster and Visual Memory. We will have to wait for a method of prediciting prolonged recovery but this paper is a great start. These cutoffs set the stage for future prospective studies to validate their clinical effectiveness.
Reference: CutOff Scores in Neurocognitive Testing and Symptom Clusters that Predict Protracted Recovery from Concussions in High School Athletes by Lau et al Neurosurgery: POST ACCEPTANCE, 09 August 2011 doi: 10.1227/NEU.0b013e31823150f0
Dr. Thomas Trojian is an Associate Professor of Family Medicine and Orthopaedics. He is the Director of the Injury Prevention and Sports Outreach Programs at the New England Musculoskeletal Institute at the UConn Health Center. In the Department of Family Medicine, he is the director of the sports medicine fellowship program. He is a team physician for UConn’s Department of Athletics, providing care for the women’s basketball, men’s soccer, women’s ice hockey, and other teams. He is also a team physician for local high schools covering such sports as wrestling and football, and he has provided coverage for professional golf, tennis, rodeo and basketball teams. Dr. Trojian is a member of the Board of Directors for the American Medical Society for Sports Medicine.
Brain Health
Boston, MA--It has been known for years that eating too many foods containing “bad” fats, such as saturated fats or trans fats, isn’t healthy for your heart. However, according to new research from ...
read more...-
Study: gender and age may affect concussion symptoms
EAST LANSING, Mich. — New research out of Michigan State University reveals female athletes and...
-
Head injury accounts for most bicycle-related deaths
Most bicycle share riders skipping helmets
BOSTON – A national rise in public ...
-
Changing brains for the better
MADISON – Practices like physical exercise, certain forms of psychological counseling and medit...




Neuroscience
RICHMOND, Va. – Even mild head injuries can cause significant abnormalities in brain function that last for several days, which may explain the neurological symptoms experienced by some individuals ...
read more...-
Study takes closer look at athletes with CTE
New Findings Provide Important Data for Refining Diagnosis
Postmortem analysis o...
-
Estrogen may protect brain cells after injury
Injections of a naturally-occurring estrogen within 30 minutes after a brain injury may increase ...
-
Fantastic voyage: new imaging technique shows brain injury ...
PITTSBURGH – A powerful new imaging technique called High Definition ...
Resources
- School professionals play an important role in the health of all students. Recognizing the signs and symptoms of concussion is important, as is managing their return to school post-injury.
- Some ...
- CDC's Concussion Training for Clinicians
-
Concussion Education Video Programs - ...
Parents, athletes, coaches and medical professionals have access to concussion education created...
-
New concussion guidelines for team ...
INDIANAPOLIS – Team physicians who assess and treat athletes suspected of concussion have new ...
ASK THE EXPERT
Former NFL QB Kurt Warner
Two-time NFL MVP
Q: Is football safe enough for youth?
Find a Sports Medicine Physician Near You
quick links
Latest News
The Pro View
Leigh Steinberg, Sports Agent
CEO Steinberg Sports and Entertainment
Clients included Troy Aikman, Warren Moon and more
Concussions Occur...
...in Any Sport
REMOVE athlete from play
REFER to medical provider
REST no sports, no texting/TV
RETURN only with doctor's OK
Source: Children's Hospital Boston, Sports Concussion Clinic




















