• Sub-concussive impacts may affect learning
  • Limit youth practices says USA Football and Steelers
  • Football helmet grants
  • Study takes closer look at athletes with CTE
  • Ex-teammate: Seau suffered 1,500 concussions; donates brain
  • Former NFL player Coy Wire on concussions: create a new norm
  • CTE and Alzheimer's; different diseases
  • Junior Seau's former agent reflects on his death

Study analysis: predicting prolonged recovery from concussion

by Thomas Trojian M.D.

An interesting article in the Journal of Neurosurgery, lead author Brian Lau, is a first attempt at determining whether any factors will predict prolonged recovery. Researchers tested high school football players with the ImPACT (computerized neurocognitive test that the authors of the study are principal owners.) They excluded 69 of the 177 athletes from the study (reason for the exclusion is not fully explained, lost to follow up.) They reported the results from the 108 remaining athletes.

The data showed a positive predictive value of 40-46%. Positive predictive value is how well a positive result predicts prolonged recovery. Therefore, a positive test correctly predicts prolonged recovery 40-46% of the time.

Another way good way to look at the information is the sensitivity and specificity. The sensitivity is: of those people that have prolonged recovery how many will be identified by a positive test.

By moving the cutoff values the authors can change the sensitivity. A higher sensitivity means you will be able to tell someone they will take a long time to recover and you would not mistakenly say you should recover quickly when they won't. As the sensitivity goes up often the specificity goes down (meaning you will tell athletes that they will take a long time to recover when they will recovery within 2 weeks). 46.3% of the athletes had prolonged recovery, which is useful information.

When the sensitivity was 85% the specificity was an awful 2-10%. In other words, of the 50 athletes with prolonged recovery you would tell 43 that they will have prolonged recovery but of the 58 with short recovery you would tell 53 to 56 of them (depending on the measure used) that they will have prolonged recovery, not very helpful as a sports medicine doctor.

The two areas that showed the most promise were Migraine Symptom Cluster and Visual Memory. We will have to wait for a method of prediciting prolonged recovery but this paper is a great start. These cutoffs set the stage for future prospective studies to validate their clinical effectiveness.


Reference:  CutOff Scores in Neurocognitive Testing and Symptom Clusters that Predict Protracted Recovery from Concussions in High School Athletes by Lau et al  Neurosurgery: POST ACCEPTANCE, 09 August 2011 doi: 10.1227/NEU.0b013e31823150f0

Dr. Thomas Trojian is an Associate Professor of Family Medicine and Orthopaedics. He is the Director of the Injury Prevention and Sports Outreach Programs at the New England Musculoskeletal Institute at the UConn Health Center. In the Department of Family Medicine, he is the director of the sports medicine fellowship program. He is a team physician for UConn’s Department of Athletics, providing care for the women’s basketball, men’s soccer, women’s ice hockey, and other teams. He is also a team physician for local high schools covering such sports as wrestling and football, and he has provided coverage for professional golf, tennis, rodeo and basketball teams. Dr. Trojian is a member of the Board of Directors for the American Medical Society for Sports Medicine.

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